Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign?

The ill-advised Clinton supported lawsuit to suppress working class votes in the Las Vegas strip has failed, but the press and the blogs are missing the big picture.

Whether you oppose or support the lawsuit, one thing is for sure: Hillary Clinton's campaign would have been wise to come out against it. Here's why: Hillary's Super Tuesday firewall is hispanic voters and working class voters. This lawsuit, whatever you may think of the Nevada caucus system as it is set up, was meant to stop a largely hispanic union (working class) from voting. Hillary Clinton had tons to lose (her hispanic and working class base) and very little to gain (arguably, her campaign diminishes a possible Obama win by putting forth this lawsuit) by supporting this lawsuit.

Obama has tons of room for vote growth amongst hispanic voters and working class voters. His strength right now is the Howard Dean "wine track" (white collar white professionals). Hillary was very foolish for failing to condemn this lawsuit.

PS: If you actually believe that the culinary union gets 5 votes for every other vote, then you haven't read the math involved in the caucuses.



Display:


Tips? (none / 0)

Flames? Anyone disagre with the STRATEGIC elements of my diary (leaving aside the incredibly boring back and forth debate about the so-called advantage for the Culinary union)?


by mcdave on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:34:10 PM EST

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (2.00 / 0)

Hate to leave you here talking to yourself, dave. The thing about political junkies is that they tend to get carried away by all sorts of events along the way and go off on how THIS IS THE DEFINING MOMENT!

There is no defining moment. It's a process. Everything has give and take. If the Culinary Union comes out overwhelmingly for Obama, then it will likely be pointed out that there was some intimidation involved, and the fact that their caucus vote may turn out to be worth more than other across the state.


by robert ethan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:38:52 PM EST

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

The problem is that the intimidation meme didn't fly outside of heavily pro-Hillary blogs. The Las Vegas media debunked it...

And frankly, any attempt to go after the Culinary union using typical union tactics ("SOLIDARITY!") will probably ROYALLY piss of state-based unions in teh feb. 5th states...


by mcdave on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:24:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

The problem is that the intimidation didn't happen on the blogs - it happened for real, and there are lots and lots of reports of it among Hispanics when they get home and spread the word and complain.

And then she calls her sister here in San Antonio, and I end up hearing about it.   And yeah, there is a lot of it going on.  And the community is really pissed off.  

Obama is going to be hurt by this worse than Clinton, and he could not afford to lose in the Hispanic community, whom Hillary has worked so closely with for years.  He is being seen as the one trying to stir the shit.

My 80%  Latino city  LOVES Hillary, and they are more disgusted every day with BO here in Texas,


by WMCB on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 02:26:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Damn "union bosses" (none / 0)

These thugs will do anything to push around their members.  

Off to watch on the "waterfront", we have to do something about these special interest, far too powerful.  


by labor nrrd on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 09:55:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Dude Hillary didn't sue anybody (2.00 / 0)

Secondly it doesn't matter.

Three, she said BEFORE the Iowa caucuses she thinks caucuses are unfair.

YOU ... YOU tell me why only casinos on the LV strip get the special caucus locations.   No off the stips locations ... of which there are dozens, hunreds? ... and why no casinos in Lake Tahoe or Reno get the same special treatment ... oh wait we know they were not affliated with the Culinary Union.

Opponents says why didn't people complain earlier?  The fact is Edward, Obama and Clinton all wanted the endorsement and they, along with NV Dem Party were scared to death of the Culinary unions power in the Dem party.


by dpANDREWS on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:39:54 PM EST

Re: Dude Hillary didn't sue anybody (none / 0)

1. Great. Caucuses are unfair. I concede this point, which is pretty much neutral to all candidates. But should we try to ACTIVELY exclude certain groups of voters from participating? No.

2. You seem to agree. "Why didn't they complain earlier" is a fairly devastating argument...


by mcdave on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:26:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Back to YOU: (none / 0)

"Should we try to ACTIVELY exclude certain groups of voters from participating?"

That is exactly what the culinary union did.  The special locations are ONLY in hotels organized by Culinary, on the Vegas Strip.  No Casinos or hotels anywhere else.  NO ...NONE ... non union locations.

Why should a dishwasher on the strip get to caucus while a dishwasher is told "get back to work!"?


by dpANDREWS on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:34:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clintons are pretty smart (none / 0)

They may figure they can't beat Culinary on the strip so they will fight the fight and highlight the unfairness to casino workers off the stip, in Reno, Lake Tahoe, etc.

Maybe that will score them points with the very working people Culinary DID NOT stand up for.


by dpANDREWS on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:36:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

GEEEZUUUUSS (none / 0)

This was covered EXTENSIVELY by DOZENS of reporters. Only a TOTAL MORON could have missed it.  That would be you, Babs.

1) They all gotta work.

2) Jobs are miles from home.

3) They couldn't leave for more than lunch.

4) The whole thing was worked out MONTHS and MONTHS and MONTHS ago.

This allows thousands of workers to express their vote.

Real Democrats support the right to vote.  Fakey cheaters oppose it.


by dataguy on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:39:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hey babs (none / 0)

The why don't non union Casinos get caucus locations?  

Why don't off the strip casinos get caucus locations?

Why don't Reno casinos get causcus location?

Be intellectually honest here.   Obama and the Culinary won.   Culinary gets special treatment.  It will help them come Sat.  Facts are facts.


by dpANDREWS on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 11:05:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually, I don't live in NV (none / 0)

so I can't say.  All I know is what I have read in dozens of articles.

Should more locations have been established?  Possibly.  Were more requested?  I don't know.  But if you don't know, then you are just pulling crap out of your ass again, just as normal.


by dataguy on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 11:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Study up, actually inform YOURSELF, then (none / 0)

The come back here and answer why:

Why don't non union Casinos get caucus locations?  

Why don't off the strip casinos get caucus locations?

Why don't Reno casinos get causcus locations?

.... don't just swallow shiite whole.   You read a bunch of articles?  What a joke?  Newsmax?  Washington Times?   See "articles" can come from all over.  Get some facts and then make a stand.   What is YOUR STAND:

Why don't non union Casinos get caucus locations?  

Why don't off the strip casinos get caucus locations?

Why don't Reno casinos get causcus locations


by dpANDREWS on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 11:40:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Study up, actually inform YOURSELF, then (none / 0)

I understand your frustrations, BUT the fact is that all of those questions were answered by the Party and all of the interested stakeholders many months ago. Seriously, what is the reason for waiting this late in the process to litigate?


by highgrade on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 11:54:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Study up, actually inform YOURSELF, then (none / 0)

Crickets.


by dmc2 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 12:46:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (2.00 / 0)

I think if there was a mistake, it was Bill getting so caught up in making the substantive argument.  I would have preferred the typical political strategy of remaining insincerely neutral.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:42:55 PM EST

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

I actually agree. Bill is a POWERFUL voice for Hillary, because (1) he is really popluar amongst democrats, (2) he is a really effective arguer, and (3) he can kind of stand back like a pundit and dispassionately make pro-hillary observations with all of the credibility of an ex-president.

However...he seems to let his emotions get the best of him occasionally...hard to blame him, it's his wife running...


by mcdave on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:28:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

Bill needs a good night's sleep -- seriously.  Those bags under his eyes in the clip where he lost it with the local news reporter looked like burlap sacks.  The man needs some rest.


by howardpark on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:45:56 PM EST

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

Miles to go before he sleeps. Bill probably hasn't felt this good since 1992.


by robert ethan on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:47:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

"Obama has tons of room for vote growth amongst hispanic voters and working class voters"

yep!


by aiko on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:00:25 PM EST

Bill is somewhat of a liability (none / 0)

Obviously he's great for creating excitement and getting the voters to come out, but I think many times there is the danger that he overshadows HRC's campaign. Sometimes he says something and it will completely suck out any media attention for 24-48 hours and I think that's dangerous for HRC to not appear as though she is playing second fiddle.

I think there is going to be a NYTimes piece tomorrow on his role during the campaign. The press focus should be on her and her proposals not on Bill.


by highgrade on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:03:36 PM EST

Re: Bill is somewhat of a liability (none / 0)

I love Bill.  He's a huge asset.  The press keeps saying otherwise, but my view from the ground in NH taught me otherwise.  He's so passionate about this. I just love to see him out there, all fiesty, working his tail off ofr his wife.


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 12:11:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (2.00 / 0)

As a Hillary supporter, I obviously would have preferred if this whole scenario hadn't played out like this, but I think the Clinton campaign knows what it's doing.

First, this may help Clinton win the state by energizing voters outside the strip to get involved.  There's a general sense by the unions supporting Hillary and by many others that it's not fair that only one group of workers gets to work at their workplace and others don't, and the whole thing seems to have given some of her supporters a jolt that these caucuses are important and that they better turn out (and, it's all about turnout).

Secondly, if Clinton does narrowly lose--due to the at-large precincts--there will certainly be a lot of attention on that as the factor.

The bottom line:  If Hillary wins Nevada, she probably ensures she wins at least 4 of the first 6 states and goes into Super Tuesday with decent momentum and wins that day and the nomination.  If Hillary loses Nevada, this could even out the press coverage on the matter, and still leave her in decent shape if she wins Florida.

In any case, I expect labor and Latinos (at least in the Southwest) to stay her strongly.


by markjay on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:06:25 PM EST

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

Thanks for the thoughtful comment!


by mcdave on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 10:23:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

Nice attempt to slide Florida back into the mix. Whether or not she wins Florida (and she might not), it will get exactly the same amount of attention that Michigan did, which is to say, almost none, outside of MyDD.


by dmc2 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 12:48:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

No offense, but that is an ignorant comment to make.

1. In Florida ALL 3 major candidates are on the ballot.  In Michigan it was only Clinton.

2. Florida is THE pivotal battleground state.

3. Florida is the first CLOSED primary (with many after to come) which will test where the Democrats-only vote will go in states where Independents are barred from participating.

4. Florida is the last contest before Super Tuesday.  It is logical that the FL primary will be discussed by the media for hints to where the important demographics will end up 5 days later (Hispanics, older voters, AA voters, the youth vote, etc.)

5. Florida is by far the largest state of the 6 early voting states.

To state that the Florida primary will get EXACTLY the same amount of attention Michigan did is mere wishful thinking, probably a desperate attempt by Obama supporters to minimize the fallout from a potentially large loss in our state.  


by georgep on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 10:22:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

no, Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign (none / 0)

was back in October and November, when she was ahead everywhere and her campaign decided to treat all criticism of her voting record as "personal attacks" by "desperate" opponents.

Now she is trying to raise legitimate questions about Obama's record, but it looks like she is desperate.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 11:11:34 PM EST

Re: no, Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign (none / 0)

No she doesn't. And, I never even heard this: was back in October and November, when she was ahead everywhere and her campaign decided to treat all criticism of her voting record as "personal attacks" by "desperate" opponents.

I doubt many did.  Inside baseball.


formerly bookgirl
by masslib1 on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 12:13:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)


by markjay on Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 11:39:16 PM EST

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

I think you have misunderstood the tactics. First of  all the Clinton campaign has studiously avoided expressing any opinion on the lawsuit, so they are somewhat insulated from any negative consequences. Secondly, assuming the sponsors of the suit wanted to weaken Obama, this was a win-win situation. If they won the suit then they reduced the ability of Culinary to influence the outcome of the caucus. But even in losing they put Culinary on notice that people are watching the at large caucuses closely, and they have constrained Culinary to strictly legitimate tactics.

This suit made it very difficult for Culinary to pressure its members to support Obama, and legitimated the Clinton campaign's efforts to peal off Culinary support.


by souvarine on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 01:49:21 AM EST

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

"First of  all the Clinton campaign has studiously avoided expressing any opinion on the lawsuit"

HUH??????

Bill Clinton gave his opinion on the lawsuit pretty forcefully.


by mcdave on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 09:56:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary's biggest mistake of the campaign? (none / 0)

The suit solidified the culinary union's support of Obama...when someone tries to block you from voting, you tend to not support them...


by mcdave on Fri Jan 18, 2008 at 09:56:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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